Friday, October 12, 2012

KAZAKHSTAN: MR. NUR AND HIS...

A romantic story of Mr.Nur and oil

This move was preceded by the government acquiring the two leading banks and taking over 25% stake in two other NBFCs. There are fears among analysts that within the next year, tenge will further devaluate to $186.315.

Critically, their credit default swap is rising with higher risk of debt default. In the London Stock Exchange, the stocks of Kazakhstan’s mining firms plummeted with devaluation of its currency. As a consequence of plunging oil prices, the government is readjusting its fiscal assumptions on revenue earned from oil at $40 per barrel for 2009, and $50 per barrel for 2010 and 2011. To his credit, Kazakhstan’s fiscal and monetary reserve lies at a huge 42% of GDP, and is quite handsome compared to neighbouring countries. But with public debt at 9% of GDP, and the banking sector on the brink of a gargantuan collapse (despite the government’s $4 billion injection into the system), it must be with a lot of pain Mr.Nur must be realising that the oil mistress has almost but run away. If reports go right, then Nur may soon have to approach the IMF for a bailout package. Ah, with the IMF would come the loaded baggage of the US, and with the US, capitalism and democracy (yes, we’re laughing).


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.

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