Showing posts with label IMF. Show all posts
Showing posts with label IMF. Show all posts

Monday, April 15, 2013

B&E Indicators

A bumpy road ahead?

The world economy is set to slow down in 2011, as government and central bank policies are tightened and key developed markets go through a deleveraging process. While both US & Europe are trying to avert a financial collapse, Japan has already lapsed back into recession after a devastating natural disaster. Considering this, IMF projects the world growth at around 4% in both 2011 and 2012, down from over 5% in 2010.

The Japanese effect pulls down averages

World trade has come under pressure in recent months, due to the tightening of interest rates in emerging markets and the disruption to production experienced as a result of the Japanese earthquake. The disaster disrupted supply chains not only within Japan but also internationally, particularly in the automotive sector. However, economists expect this to be a temporary blip, as opposed to a long term drawn out affair.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri
 
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Friday, October 12, 2012

KAZAKHSTAN: MR. NUR AND HIS...

A romantic story of Mr.Nur and oil

This move was preceded by the government acquiring the two leading banks and taking over 25% stake in two other NBFCs. There are fears among analysts that within the next year, tenge will further devaluate to $186.315.

Critically, their credit default swap is rising with higher risk of debt default. In the London Stock Exchange, the stocks of Kazakhstan’s mining firms plummeted with devaluation of its currency. As a consequence of plunging oil prices, the government is readjusting its fiscal assumptions on revenue earned from oil at $40 per barrel for 2009, and $50 per barrel for 2010 and 2011. To his credit, Kazakhstan’s fiscal and monetary reserve lies at a huge 42% of GDP, and is quite handsome compared to neighbouring countries. But with public debt at 9% of GDP, and the banking sector on the brink of a gargantuan collapse (despite the government’s $4 billion injection into the system), it must be with a lot of pain Mr.Nur must be realising that the oil mistress has almost but run away. If reports go right, then Nur may soon have to approach the IMF for a bailout package. Ah, with the IMF would come the loaded baggage of the US, and with the US, capitalism and democracy (yes, we’re laughing).


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.

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