Tuesday, August 28, 2012

Bad news for the Congress in 2014

Political jostling and jockeying to try and go one up and a peculiar dependence on bureacrats has badly hobbled the administration of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. This can spell bad news for the Congress in 2014 and for India right now

Of course, nobody has ever accused Prime Minister Manmohan Singh of eloquence. Or even charisma for that matter. In fact, the absence of eloquence and charisma were supposed to be the strong points of the man when he was Prime Minister during UPA-1. But UPA-2 is an entirely different cup of tea and many analysts are convinced his silence is now becoming an embarrassment. No matter what the reason, two perceptions about the nature and performance of UPA-2 are becoming very strong and widespread. And they should worry Manmohan Singh and the UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi. The first perception is that this government couldn’t care less about the aam aadmi. That is ironical because UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi has so brilliantly leveraged the aam aadmi and his welfare as the cornerstone of the strategy to revive the fortunes of Congress. To be widely perceived as the real leader of a regime that trampling upon the livelihood of the aam aadmi would naturally come as a bitter shock to the UPA leader. The second perception-rapidly gaining ground across the country-is slowly but surely demolishing the halo around Manmohan Singh as the man of unimpeachable integrity and honesty. The number of scams-big and small-that have swarmed like locusts on the political landscape since the arrival of UPA-2 in May, 2009 is quite alarming. Sleaze may be a word that is abhorrent to Manmohan Singh; but that term is now being increasingly associated with his government. So many politicians, analysts and pundits are saying the same things so eagerly about UPA-2 that it would be a waste of space to quote them. But the message is unmistakable and loud and very clear: If Sonia Gandhi and de facto heir apparent Rahul Gandhi are to succeed in their strategy to lead Congress to a hat trick of wins in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, they have to do something about UPA-2. And that something has to be done very soon.

Things were so dramatically different in May 2009 when a beaming Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi addressed media persons after the Congress staged a spectacular performance in the Lok Sabha elections, winning more than 200 seats after 25 long years of gradual but seemingly irreversible decline. Both Sonia Gandhi and Manmohan Singh scored brownie points with pundits and analysts. Sonia Gandhi for her astute political management and relentless focus on concerns of the poor and the aam aadmi, and Manmohan Singh for his low key but effective style of governance that delivered results. With the Left-that often gave nightmares to Manmohan Singh during UPA-1-being routed and with truculent allies like Lalu Prasad Yadav and Mulayam Singh Yadav being humbled, it was widely expected that a “liberated” Manmohan Singh would make UPA-2 even more successful than UPA 1. By the time the UPA-2 started functioning, the Indian economy too had successfully weathered the worst effects of the global meltdown of 2008 and growth was back on track. Tax revenues were buoyant and everyone knew that-despite huge fiscal deficits-the government had enough funds to funnel towards social sector and welfare schemes like NREGA and Sarva Shiksha Abhiyaan that were the hallmark of UPA-1. It was also clear that a ‘liberated’ Manmohan Singh now had nothing to lose. His so called legacy was secure with the Indo-US strategic deal that enabled India to formally join the club of nuclear powers. He was to ‘rule’ in his typically low key and non controversial and non-adversarial manner till perhaps 2014 by which time Rahul Gandhi would have gone a long way in reviving the fortunes of the Congress in states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Tamil Nadu that together send about 160 MPs to the Lok Sabha. Sure, analysts knew it would be foolhardy to say that Rahul Gandhi would lead more than 272 Lok Sabha Congress MPs in 2014 when he became Prime Minister. But almost everyone agreed that he would come quite close. That was in 2009.



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